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Radan vs Temnic 1924 — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
9 – 0
Temnic 1924
Temnic 1924
3/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Radan85%
×Draw11%
Temnic 19245%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
3.04
Temnic 1924
0.61

Radan creates 398% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Temnic 1924
0.44

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Temnic 1924
4.11

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Temnic 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Temnic 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Radan or draw
95%
Radan or Temnic 1924
89%
Draw or Temnic 1924
15%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
66%
Temnic 1924 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
95%
Radan 2+ goals
80%
Radan 3+ goals
57%
Temnic 1924 1+ goals
46%
Temnic 1924 2+ goals
13%
Temnic 1924 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
95%
Temnic 1924 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Temnic 1924 away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Temnic 1924 defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 3.04

Temnic 1924 attack 0.44 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Radan scores more
85%
level
11%
Temnic 1924 scores more
5%

Radan at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Srpska Liga - East: Radan 9–0 Temnic 1924

Radan beat Temnic 1924 9-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.