Mornag 0–0 Olympique Béja: Result & Stats | Cup

Mornag

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Béja

A. Hichri 120'

B. Hasni 120'

3/22/2026

Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mornag37%

×Draw28%

Olympique Béja35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MornagExpected goals in this matchOlympique Béja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Mornag

1.21

Olympique Béja

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Mornag

1.67

Olympique Béja

1.00

allows per match

Mornag

1.33

Olympique Béja

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mornag+0.00on par

Olympique Béja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornag ↓

Olympique Béja →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mornag or draw

65%

Mornag or Olympique Béja

72%

Draw or Olympique Béja

63%

Winning margin

Mornag wins by 2+

16%

Olympique Béja wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mornag 1+ goals

70%

Mornag 2+ goals

34%

Mornag 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Béja 1+ goals

69%

Olympique Béja 2+ goals

33%

Olympique Béja 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mornag (draw refunded)

51%

Olympique Béja (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mornag at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Olympique Béja away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mornag attack 1.67 + Olympique Béja defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + Mornag defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mornag scores more

37%

level

28%

Olympique Béja scores more

35%

Mornag at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mornag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120'

A. Hichri

120'

B. Hasni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff