Mornag 0–1 ES Sahel: Result & Stats | Cup

Mornag

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ES Sahel

F. Chawat 57'

4/6/2025

Cup · Round of 32Stade de Mornag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mornag29%

×Draw26%

ES Sahel45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MornagExpected goals in this matchES Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.48

Mornag

1.15

ES Sahel

1.48

ES Sahel creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.63

1.33

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Mornag

1.67

ES Sahel

1.63

allows per match

Mornag

1.33

ES Sahel

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mornag+0.00on par

ES Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornag ↓

ES Sahel →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mornag or draw

55%

Mornag or ES Sahel

74%

Draw or ES Sahel

71%

Winning margin

Mornag wins by 2+

12%

ES Sahel wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mornag 1+ goals

68%

Mornag 2+ goals

32%

Mornag 3+ goals

11%

ES Sahel 1+ goals

77%

ES Sahel 2+ goals

43%

ES Sahel 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mornag (draw refunded)

40%

ES Sahel (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mornag at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

ES Sahel away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mornag attack 1.67 + ES Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

ES Sahel attack 1.63 + Mornag defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mornag scores more

29%

level

26%

ES Sahel scores more

45%

ES Sahel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

F. Chawat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff