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Móri SE vs Puskás II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puskás II
Puskás II
4/9/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE18%
×Draw22%
Puskás II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
0.97
Puskás II
1.95

Puskás II creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Puskás II
1.48

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Puskás II
1.25

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
40%
Móri SE or Puskás II
78%
Draw or Puskás II
82%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
6%
Puskás II wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
62%
Móri SE 2+ goals
25%
Móri SE 3+ goals
7%
Puskás II 1+ goals
86%
Puskás II 2+ goals
58%
Puskás II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
23%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Puskás II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Puskás II attack 1.48 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Móri SE scores more
18%
level
22%
Puskás II scores more
60%

Puskás II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 0–1 Puskás II

Puskás II beat Móri SE 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.