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Móri SE vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
B. Varga 38'
T. Pleszkan 78'
10/22/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 14Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE17%
×Draw20%
Nagykanizsai ULE64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.02
Nagykanizsai ULE
2.19

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 115% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
36%
Móri SE or Nagykanizsai ULE
80%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
83%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
6%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
64%
Móri SE 2+ goals
27%
Móri SE 3+ goals
8%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
89%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
64%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
21%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Móri SE scores more
17%
level
20%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
64%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
B. Varga
78'
T. Pleszkan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 1–1 Nagykanizsai ULE

Móri SE and Nagykanizsai ULE drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 22, 2022.

Goals: B. Varga (38'), T. Pleszkan (78').

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.