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Móri SE vs Kelen — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kelen
Kelen
10/9/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 12Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE27%
×Draw23%
Kelen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.26
Kelen
1.79

Kelen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Kelen
1.16

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Kelen
1.84

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Kelen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Kelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
50%
Móri SE or Kelen
77%
Draw or Kelen
73%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
11%
Kelen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
72%
Móri SE 2+ goals
36%
Móri SE 3+ goals
13%
Kelen 1+ goals
83%
Kelen 2+ goals
53%
Kelen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
35%
Kelen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Kelen away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Kelen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kelen attack 1.16 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Móri SE scores more
27%
level
23%
Kelen scores more
50%

Kelen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 0–2 Kelen

Kelen beat Móri SE 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.