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Móri SE vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
L. Toth 83'
I. Vanko 54'
N. Kokenszky 22'
D. Barczi 9'
B. Elek 1'
9/28/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 10Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE12%
×Draw18%
III. Kerületi TUE70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
0.78
III. Kerületi TUE
2.22

III. Kerületi TUE creates 185% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
III. Kerületi TUE
2.02

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
III. Kerületi TUE
0.88

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
30%
Móri SE or III. Kerületi TUE
82%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
88%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
3%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
54%
Móri SE 2+ goals
18%
Móri SE 3+ goals
4%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
89%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
65%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
14%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Móri SE scores more
12%
level
18%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
70%

III. Kerületi TUE at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
B. Elek
9'
D. Barczi
22'
N. Kokenszky
54'
I. Vanko
83'
L. Toth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 0–5 III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Móri SE 5-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 28, 2022.

Goals: B. Elek (1'), D. Barczi (9'), N. Kokenszky (22'), I. Vanko (54'), L. Toth (83').

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.