Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Móri SE vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
5/7/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 36Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE22%
×Draw22%
Érdi VSE55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.13
Érdi VSE
1.91

Érdi VSE creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
45%
Móri SE or Érdi VSE
78%
Draw or Érdi VSE
78%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
8%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
68%
Móri SE 2+ goals
31%
Móri SE 3+ goals
11%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
85%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
57%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
29%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.13

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Móri SE scores more
22%
level
22%
Érdi VSE scores more
55%

Érdi VSE at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 1–2 Érdi VSE

Érdi VSE beat Móri SE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.