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Móri SE vs Bicskei — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bicskei
Bicskei
12/4/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 20Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE23%
×Draw23%
Bicskei53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.08
Bicskei
1.77

Bicskei creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Bicskei
1.13

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Bicskei
1.49

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Bicskei+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Bicskei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
47%
Móri SE or Bicskei
77%
Draw or Bicskei
77%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
9%
Bicskei wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
66%
Móri SE 2+ goals
29%
Móri SE 3+ goals
10%
Bicskei 1+ goals
83%
Bicskei 2+ goals
53%
Bicskei 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
30%
Bicskei (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Bicskei away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Bicskei defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bicskei attack 1.13 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Móri SE scores more
23%
level
23%
Bicskei scores more
53%

Bicskei at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bicskei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 0–1 Bicskei

Bicskei beat Móri SE 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.