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Mori Santo Stefano vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
3/17/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 27Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano23%
×Draw23%
Montecchio Maggiore53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
1.10
Montecchio Maggiore
1.78

Montecchio Maggiore creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
47%
Mori Santo Stefano or Montecchio Maggiore
77%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
77%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
9%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
67%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
30%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
10%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
83%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
53%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
31%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
23%
level
23%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
53%

Montecchio Maggiore at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mori Santo Stefano 0–6 Montecchio Maggiore

Montecchio Maggiore beat Mori Santo Stefano 6-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.