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Mori Santo Stefano vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
M. Nunic 67', 29'
L. Caprioni 60'
9/24/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano20%
×Draw23%
Dolomiti Bellunesi57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
0.99
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.85

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 87% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
43%
Mori Santo Stefano or Dolomiti Bellunesi
77%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
80%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
7%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
63%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
26%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
8%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
84%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
55%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
20%
level
23%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
57%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Nunic
60'
L. Caprioni
67'
M. Nunic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mori Santo Stefano vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Mori Santo Stefano 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 24, 2023.

Goals: M. Nunic (29', 67'), L. Caprioni (60').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.