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Mori Santo Stefano vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Chions
Chions
J. I. Molina 61', 15'
F. Tuzzo 4'
I. Ba 64', 24'
F. Carella 60'
10/22/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano30%
×Draw24%
Chions46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
1.30
Chions
1.67

Chions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Chions
1.84

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
54%
Mori Santo Stefano or Chions
76%
Draw or Chions
70%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
13%
Chions wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
73%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
37%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
14%
Chions 1+ goals
81%
Chions 2+ goals
50%
Chions 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
39%
Chions (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chions attack 1.10 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
30%
level
24%
Chions scores more
46%

Chions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Tuzzo
15'
J. I. Molina
24'
I. Ba
60'
F. Carella
61'
J. I. Molina
64'
I. Ba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mori Santo Stefano 3–3 Chions

Mori Santo Stefano and Chions drew 3-3 in Serie D - Girone C on October 22, 2023.

Goals: F. Tuzzo (4'), J. I. Molina (15', 61'), I. Ba (24', 64'), F. Carella (60').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.