Mori Santo Stefano 1–2 Breno: Result & Stats

Mori Santo Stefano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Breno

A. En Naimi 45+1'

G. Bassini 68'

D. Vita 18'

3/28/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano26%

×Draw24%

Breno50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mori Santo StefanoExpected goals in this matchBreno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.71

Mori Santo Stefano

1.15

Breno

1.71

Breno creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

1.18

2.24

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano

0.76

Breno

1.18

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

Breno

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Breno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw

50%

Mori Santo Stefano or Breno

76%

Draw or Breno

74%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

10%

Breno wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

68%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

32%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

11%

Breno 1+ goals

82%

Breno 2+ goals

51%

Breno 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

34%

Breno (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Breno attack 1.18 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

26%

level

24%

Breno scores more

50%

Breno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Breno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. Vita

45+1'

A. En Naimi

68'

G. Bassini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff