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Moreton City II vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland Premier League 2026

Moreton City II
Moreton City II
FT
0 – 4
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
3/23/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 5Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II13%
×Draw15%
Eastern Suburbs72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City II
1.27
Eastern Suburbs
3.04

Eastern Suburbs creates 139% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Moreton City II
1.09
Eastern Suburbs
2.73

allows per match

Moreton City II
3.36
Eastern Suburbs
1.45

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw
28%
Moreton City II or Eastern Suburbs
85%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
87%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+
5%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals
72%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
36%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
14%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
95%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
80%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)
16%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.73 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Moreton City II scores more
13%
level
15%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
72%

Eastern Suburbs at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreton City II vs Eastern Suburbs

Eastern Suburbs beat Moreton City II 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.