Moreton City II 0–5 Capalaba: Result & Stats

Moreton City II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Capalaba

6/15/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 15Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II25%

×Draw19%

Capalaba56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton City IIExpected goals in this matchCapalaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.55

Moreton City II

1.67

Capalaba

2.55

Capalaba creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

1.09

creates per match

1.74

3.36

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Moreton City II

1.09

Capalaba

1.74

allows per match

Moreton City II

3.36

Capalaba

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Capalaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Capalaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw

44%

Moreton City II or Capalaba

81%

Draw or Capalaba

75%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+

12%

Capalaba wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals

81%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

50%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

23%

Capalaba 1+ goals

92%

Capalaba 2+ goals

72%

Capalaba 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

31%

Capalaba (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Capalaba away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Capalaba defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Capalaba attack 1.74 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moreton City II scores more

25%

level

19%

Capalaba scores more

56%

Capalaba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Capalaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff