Moreton City II 1–4 Brisbane Strikers

Moreton City II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Brisbane Strikers

7/5/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 17Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Moreton City II18%

×Draw17%

Brisbane Strikers65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton City IIExpected goals in this matchBrisbane Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.83

Moreton City II

1.46

Brisbane Strikers

2.83

Brisbane Strikers creates 94% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 55 away

1.09

creates per match

2.29

3.36

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Moreton City II

1.09

Brisbane Strikers

2.29

allows per match

Moreton City II

3.36

Brisbane Strikers

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton City II+0.00on par

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City II ↓

Brisbane Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Moreton City II or draw

35%

Moreton City II or Brisbane Strikers

83%

Draw or Brisbane Strikers

82%

Winning margin

Moreton City II wins by 2+

8%

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Moreton City II 1+ goals

77%

Moreton City II 2+ goals

43%

Moreton City II 3+ goals

18%

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

94%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

77%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Moreton City II (draw refunded)

22%

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City II attack 1.09 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Moreton City II defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Moreton City II scores more

18%

level

17%

Brisbane Strikers scores more

65%

Brisbane Strikers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff