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Moreton City Excelsior vs Perth Glory — Australia Cup 2021

Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsioradvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
8/28/2024Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moreton City Excelsior46%
×Draw19%
Perth Glory35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City Excelsior
2.67
Perth Glory
2.33

Moreton City Excelsior creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moreton City Excelsior
2.67
Perth Glory
2.33

allows per match

Moreton City Excelsior
2.33
Perth Glory
2.67

finishing

Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City Excelsior ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Moreton City Excelsior or draw
65%
Moreton City Excelsior or Perth Glory
81%
Draw or Perth Glory
54%

Winning margin

Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
28%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
93%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
74%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
49%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
90%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
67%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
57%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City Excelsior at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.67 + Perth Glory defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Perth Glory attack 2.33 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moreton City Excelsior scores more
46%
level
19%
Perth Glory scores more
35%

Moreton City Excelsior at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreton City Excelsior vs Perth Glory

Moreton City Excelsior beat Perth Glory 3-2 in Australia Cup on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.