Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moreton City Excelsior vs Melbourne Victory — Australia Cup 2021

Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victoryadvanced
9/14/2024Australia CupAustralia Cup · Quarter-finalsPerry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moreton City Excelsior25%
×Draw19%
Melbourne Victory55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton City Excelsior
1.67
Melbourne Victory
2.50

Melbourne Victory creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Moreton City Excelsior
2.67
Melbourne Victory
2.67

allows per match

Moreton City Excelsior
2.33
Melbourne Victory
0.67

finishing

Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City Excelsior ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Moreton City Excelsior or draw
45%
Moreton City Excelsior or Melbourne Victory
81%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
75%

Winning margin

Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
12%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
81%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
50%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
23%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
92%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
71%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
31%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City Excelsior at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.67 + Melbourne Victory defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Melbourne Victory attack 2.67 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moreton City Excelsior scores more
25%
level
19%
Melbourne Victory scores more
55%

Melbourne Victory at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Moreton City Excelsior 0–4 Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory beat Moreton City Excelsior 4-0 in Australia Cup on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.