Moreton City Excelsior 4–3 Brisbane City

Moreton City Excelsior

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Brisbane City

6/1/2025

Queensland NPL · Round 12Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moreton City Excelsior49%

×Draw20%

Brisbane City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton City ExcelsiorExpected goals in this matchBrisbane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.76

Moreton City Excelsior

2.27

Brisbane City

1.76

Moreton City Excelsior creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

2.79

creates per match

2.02

1.50

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Moreton City Excelsior

2.79

Brisbane City

2.02

allows per match

Moreton City Excelsior

1.50

Brisbane City

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par

Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton City Excelsior ↓

Brisbane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Moreton City Excelsior or draw

70%

Moreton City Excelsior or Brisbane City

80%

Draw or Brisbane City

51%

Winning margin

Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+

29%

Brisbane City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals

90%

Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals

66%

Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals

39%

Brisbane City 1+ goals

83%

Brisbane City 2+ goals

52%

Brisbane City 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)

62%

Brisbane City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton City Excelsior at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.79 + Brisbane City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.27

Brisbane City attack 2.02 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Moreton City Excelsior scores more

49%

level

20%

Brisbane City scores more

30%

Moreton City Excelsior at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff