Moreton Bay United 5–1 SWQ Thunder: Result & Stats

Moreton Bay United

FT

5 – 1

SWQ Thunder

4/22/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 12Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Moreton Bay United66%

×Draw16%

SWQ Thunder18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchSWQ Thunder

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.28

1.73

Moreton Bay United

3.28

SWQ Thunder

1.73

Moreton Bay United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

2.20

creates per match

1.50

1.95

allows per match

4.36

creates per match

Moreton Bay United

2.20

SWQ Thunder

1.50

allows per match

Moreton Bay United

1.95

SWQ Thunder

4.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

SWQ Thunder →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw

82%

Moreton Bay United or SWQ Thunder

84%

Draw or SWQ Thunder

34%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

47%

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

96%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

83%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

62%

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals

82%

SWQ Thunder 2+ goals

52%

SWQ Thunder 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

79%

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.50, concedes 4.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + SWQ Thunder defence 4.36 → ÷2 → 3.28

SWQ Thunder attack 1.50 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more

66%

level

16%

SWQ Thunder scores more

18%

Moreton Bay United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff