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Moreton Bay United vs Peninsula Power — Queensland NPL 2019

Moreton Bay United
Moreton Bay United
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
7/23/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 18Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Moreton Bay United33%
×Draw21%
Peninsula Power46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton Bay United
1.73
Peninsula Power
2.07

Peninsula Power creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 95 away

creates per match

Moreton Bay United
2.20
Peninsula Power
2.19

allows per match

Moreton Bay United
1.95
Peninsula Power
1.25

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par
Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

Peninsula Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw
54%
Moreton Bay United or Peninsula Power
79%
Draw or Peninsula Power
67%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+
16%
Peninsula Power wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals
82%
Moreton Bay United 2+ goals
52%
Moreton Bay United 3+ goals
25%
Peninsula Power 1+ goals
87%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
61%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)
42%
Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.25 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Peninsula Power attack 2.19 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more
33%
level
21%
Peninsula Power scores more
46%

Peninsula Power at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Moreton Bay United 1–6 Peninsula Power

Peninsula Power beat Moreton Bay United 6-1 in Queensland NPL on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.