Moreton Bay United 2–1 Magpies Crusaders

Moreton Bay United

FT

2 – 1

Magpies Crusaders

3/27/2021

Queensland NPL · Round 4Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Moreton Bay United59%

×Draw19%

Magpies Crusaders22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.52

Moreton Bay United

2.55

Magpies Crusaders

1.52

Moreton Bay United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

2.20

creates per match

1.10

1.95

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Moreton Bay United

2.20

Magpies Crusaders

1.10

allows per match

Moreton Bay United

1.95

Magpies Crusaders

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw

78%

Moreton Bay United or Magpies Crusaders

81%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

41%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

39%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

92%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

72%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

46%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

78%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

45%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

73%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.55

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more

59%

level

19%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

22%

Moreton Bay United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff