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Moreton Bay United vs Brisbane City — Queensland NPL 2019

Moreton Bay United
Moreton Bay United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Brisbane City
Brisbane City
7/28/2023Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 19Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Moreton Bay United40%
×Draw21%
Brisbane City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreton Bay United
1.98
Brisbane City
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Moreton Bay United
2.20
Brisbane City
2.02

allows per match

Moreton Bay United
1.95
Brisbane City
1.76

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par
Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

Brisbane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw
60%
Moreton Bay United or Brisbane City
79%
Draw or Brisbane City
60%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+
21%
Brisbane City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals
86%
Moreton Bay United 2+ goals
59%
Moreton Bay United 3+ goals
31%
Brisbane City 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
59%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)
50%
Brisbane City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + Brisbane City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Brisbane City attack 2.02 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more
40%
level
21%
Brisbane City scores more
40%

Moreton Bay United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Moreton Bay United 3–2 Brisbane City

Moreton Bay United beat Brisbane City 3-2 in Queensland NPL on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.