Moreland Zebras 1–1 Western United II

Moreland Zebras

FT

1 – 1

Western United II

7/21/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 23CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras42%

×Draw22%

Western United II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreland ZebrasExpected goals in this matchWestern United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.71

Moreland Zebras

1.84

Western United II

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 49 away

1.69

creates per match

2.14

1.28

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Moreland Zebras

1.69

Western United II

2.14

allows per match

Moreland Zebras

1.28

Western United II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Western United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw

64%

Moreland Zebras or Western United II

78%

Draw or Western United II

58%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+

22%

Western United II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals

84%

Moreland Zebras 2+ goals

55%

Moreland Zebras 3+ goals

28%

Western United II 1+ goals

82%

Western United II 2+ goals

51%

Western United II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)

53%

Western United II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Western United II attack 2.14 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more

42%

level

22%

Western United II scores more

36%

Moreland Zebras at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff