Moreland Zebras 5–2 Melbourne City II

Moreland Zebras

FT

5 – 2

Melbourne City II

8/11/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 25CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras37%

×Draw23%

Melbourne City II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreland ZebrasExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.65

Moreland Zebras

1.57

Melbourne City II

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 39 away

1.69

creates per match

2.03

1.28

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Moreland Zebras

1.69

Melbourne City II

2.03

allows per match

Moreland Zebras

1.28

Melbourne City II

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Melbourne City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw

60%

Moreland Zebras or Melbourne City II

77%

Draw or Melbourne City II

63%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+

18%

Melbourne City II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals

79%

Moreland Zebras 2+ goals

46%

Moreland Zebras 3+ goals

21%

Melbourne City II 1+ goals

81%

Melbourne City II 2+ goals

49%

Melbourne City II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)

48%

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more

37%

level

23%

Melbourne City II scores more

40%

Melbourne City II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff