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Moreland Zebras vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
0 – 2
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
4/14/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 9CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Moreland Zebras43%
×Draw25%
Dandenong City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
1.57
Dandenong City
1.33

Moreland Zebras creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Dandenong City
1.38

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Dandenong City
1.46

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
68%
Moreland Zebras or Dandenong City
75%
Draw or Dandenong City
57%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
22%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
79%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
46%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
21%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
74%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
38%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
57%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Dandenong City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dandenong City attack 1.38 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
43%
level
25%
Dandenong City scores more
32%

Moreland Zebras at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreland Zebras vs Dandenong City

Dandenong City beat Moreland Zebras 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.