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Moreland Zebras vs Brunswick City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
1 – 0
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
6/23/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras47%
×Draw23%
Brunswick City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
1.77
Brunswick City
1.38

Moreland Zebras creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 67 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Brunswick City
1.48

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Brunswick City
1.84

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Brunswick City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
70%
Moreland Zebras or Brunswick City
77%
Draw or Brunswick City
53%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
25%
Brunswick City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
83%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
53%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
26%
Brunswick City 1+ goals
75%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
40%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
61%
Brunswick City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brunswick City attack 1.48 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
47%
level
23%
Brunswick City scores more
30%

Moreland Zebras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Moreland Zebras 1–0 Brunswick City

Moreland Zebras beat Brunswick City 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 23, 2023.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.