Moreland City 0–5 Port Melbourne: Result & Stats

Moreland City

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Port Melbourne

6/3/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 16CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moreland City30%

×Draw23%

Port Melbourne47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreland CityExpected goals in this matchPort Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.79

Moreland City

1.40

Port Melbourne

1.79

Port Melbourne creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

2.08

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Moreland City

1.00

Port Melbourne

1.50

allows per match

Moreland City

2.08

Port Melbourne

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Port Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw

53%

Moreland City or Port Melbourne

77%

Draw or Port Melbourne

70%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+

13%

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals

75%

Moreland City 2+ goals

41%

Moreland City 3+ goals

17%

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

83%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

53%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)

39%

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.00 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Moreland City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moreland City scores more

30%

level

23%

Port Melbourne scores more

47%

Port Melbourne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff