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Moreland City vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland City
Moreland City
FT
2 – 0
Kingston City
Kingston City
3/27/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2Campbell Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Moreland City47%
×Draw22%
Kingston City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland City
1.96
Kingston City
1.54

Moreland City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

creates per match

Moreland City
1.75
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Moreland City
1.34
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw
69%
Moreland City or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
53%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+
27%
Kingston City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals
86%
Moreland City 2+ goals
58%
Moreland City 3+ goals
31%
Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
45%
Kingston City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)
61%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.75 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Moreland City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moreland City scores more
47%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
31%

Moreland City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moreland City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreland City vs Kingston City

Moreland City beat Kingston City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Campbell Reserve in Melbourne.