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Kingston City vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
0 – 5
Moreland City
Moreland City
3/28/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kingston City43%
×Draw21%
Moreland City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
2.12
Moreland City
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Moreland City
1.80

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Moreland City
2.63

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
64%
Kingston City or Moreland City
79%
Draw or Moreland City
57%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
24%
Moreland City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
88%
Kingston City 2+ goals
62%
Kingston City 3+ goals
35%
Moreland City 1+ goals
86%
Moreland City 2+ goals
58%
Moreland City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
54%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Moreland City defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Moreland City attack 1.80 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kingston City scores more
43%
level
21%
Moreland City scores more
36%

Kingston City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Moreland City

Moreland City beat Kingston City 5-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 28, 2022.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.