Moreirense 0–2 Santa Clara: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Clara

M. Mohebi 85'

Ricardinho 45+2'

1/22/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 19Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Moreirense29%

×Draw28%

Santa Clara43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchSanta Clara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.30

Moreirense

1.03

Santa Clara

1.30

Santa Clara creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

0.88

creates per match

1.14

1.46

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Moreirense

0.88

Santa Clara

1.14

allows per match

Moreirense

1.46

Santa Clara

1.18

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Moreirense+0.28scores more

Santa Clara-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Santa Clara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

57%

Moreirense or Santa Clara

72%

Draw or Santa Clara

71%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

11%

Santa Clara wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

64%

Moreirense 2+ goals

28%

Moreirense 3+ goals

9%

Santa Clara 1+ goals

73%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

37%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

41%

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.46 · 19 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 0.88 + Santa Clara defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Santa Clara attack 1.14 + Moreirense defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moreirense scores more

29%

level

28%

Santa Clara scores more

43%

Santa Clara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Mohebi

Santa Clara · F

8.2

Match Events

45+2'

Ricardinho

55'

André Luís← Walterson

55'

Derik Lacerda← Pablo

60'

Steven Vitória

63'

Mansur

69'

Paulo Henrique← Rui Costa

71'

Felipe Pires← Yan

76'

M. Mohebi← Cryzan

84'

Steven Vitória

84'

Steven Vitória

85'

M. Mohebi↳ Marco Pereira

86'

Galego← Pedro Amador

89'

Mohammad Mohebi

90'

O. Barreto← Lincoln

90'

Rúben Oliveira← Ricardinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoreirenseSanta

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots10

2Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

419Total Passes351

317Accurate Passes261

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1