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Moreirense vs Santa Clara — Taça de Portugal 2018

Moreirense
Moreirense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Clara
Santa Claraadvanced
1/12/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Moreirense36%
×Draw24%
Santa Clara40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreirense
1.54
Santa Clara
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Moreirense
2.00
Santa Clara
1.64

allows per match

Moreirense
1.60
Santa Clara
1.07

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw
60%
Moreirense or Santa Clara
76%
Draw or Santa Clara
64%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+
18%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals
79%
Moreirense 2+ goals
45%
Moreirense 3+ goals
20%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
80%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
48%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)
48%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 2.00 + Santa Clara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Santa Clara attack 1.64 + Moreirense defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moreirense scores more
36%
level
24%
Santa Clara scores more
40%

Santa Clara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreirense vs Santa Clara

Santa Clara beat Moreirense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.