Moreirense 1–3 Mafra: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Mafra

Fábio Abreu 90+2'

Diego Luiz 68' (pen), 14'

Joel 49'

11/24/2019

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundParque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Moreirense37%

×Draw24%

Mafra39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchMafra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.62

Moreirense

1.57

Mafra

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.64

1.60

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Moreirense

2.00

Mafra

1.64

allows per match

Moreirense

1.60

Mafra

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreirense+0.00on par

Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Mafra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

61%

Moreirense or Mafra

76%

Draw or Mafra

63%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

18%

Mafra wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

79%

Moreirense 2+ goals

46%

Moreirense 3+ goals

21%

Mafra 1+ goals

80%

Mafra 2+ goals

48%

Mafra 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

49%

Mafra (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 2.00 + Mafra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mafra attack 1.64 + Moreirense defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moreirense scores more

37%

level

24%

Mafra scores more

39%

Mafra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

24'

45'

49'

58'

Fábio Abreu← Alex Soares

63'

L. Machado

67'

R. Halliche

68'

Diego LuizPenalty

73'

Chastre

75'

D. Texeira← Nenê

76'

Lucas← Nuno Rodrigues

81'

I. Camará← Fabio Pacheco

83'

S. Vitoria

85'

Gustavo Cazonatti← Júnior Franco

90'

Flávio Silva← Diego Luiz

90+2'

Fábio Abreu

Moreirense

Mafra

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vítor Campelos

58'▲Fábio Abreu←▼Alex Soares

75'▲D. Texeira←▼Nenê

81'▲I. Camará←▼Fabio Pacheco

Moreirense substitutes

AbreuTexeiraCamaráSantosAurélioHenriqueMacedo

Manager: Vasco Seabra

76'▲Lucas←▼Nuno Rodrigues

85'▲Gustavo Cazonatti←▼Júnior Franco

90'▲Flávio Silva←▼Diego Luiz

Mafra substitutes

LucasCazonattiSilvaAreiasGuilhermeGodinhoJuary

Taça de Portugal: Moreirense 1–3 Mafra

Mafra beat Moreirense 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 24, 2019.

Goals: Diego Luiz (14', 68' pen), Joel (49'), Fábio Abreu (90+2').

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.

Moreirense vs Mafra — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Taça de Portugal: Moreirense 1–3 Mafra