Moreirense 0–0 Benfica: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica

12/3/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 12Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Moreirense22%

×Draw24%

Benfica53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.66

Moreirense

0.97

Benfica

1.66

Benfica creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.01

creates per match

1.80

1.51

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Moreirense

1.01

Benfica

1.80

allows per match

Moreirense

1.51

Benfica

0.93

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Moreirense+0.30scores more

Benfica+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

47%

Moreirense or Benfica

76%

Draw or Benfica

78%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

8%

Benfica wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

62%

Moreirense 2+ goals

25%

Moreirense 3+ goals

7%

Benfica 1+ goals

81%

Benfica 2+ goals

49%

Benfica 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

29%

Benfica (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.93 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 1.01 + Benfica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Benfica attack 1.80 + Moreirense defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Moreirense scores more

22%

level

24%

Benfica scores more

53%

Benfica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff