Benfica 3–0 Moreirense: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Moreirense

B. Rollheiser 78'

Tomás Araújo 45+1'

O. Kökçü 18'

4/14/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 29Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Benfica62%

×Draw22%

Moreirense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchMoreirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.85

Benfica

1.89

Moreirense

0.85

Benfica creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.37

creates per match

0.91

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Benfica

2.37

Moreirense

0.91

allows per match

Benfica

0.80

Moreirense

1.40

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Benfica+0.42scores more

Moreirense+0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Moreirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

84%

Benfica or Moreirense

78%

Draw or Moreirense

38%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

37%

Moreirense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

85%

Benfica 2+ goals

56%

Benfica 3+ goals

29%

Moreirense 1+ goals

57%

Moreirense 2+ goals

21%

Moreirense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

79%

Moreirense (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.80 · 19 matches

Moreirense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.37 + Moreirense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.89

Moreirense attack 0.91 + Benfica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Benfica scores more

62%

level

22%

Moreirense scores more

16%

Benfica at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

Tiago Gouveia

Benfica · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

O. Kökçü↳ Tiago Gouveia

45+1'

Tomás Araújo

46'

B. Rollheiser← David Neres

46'

António Silva← Tomás Araújo

46'

Florentino← João Neves

56'

Luís Asué← Vinícius Mingotti

61'

Álvaro Carreras

74'

Castro← Gonçalo Franco

74'

Matheus Aiás← João Camacho

74'

J. Antonisse← K. Kodisang

78'

B. Rollheiser↳ Tiago Gouveia

85'

Rúben Ismael← L. Ofori

86'

C. Tengstedt← O. Kökçü

87'

Benjamín Rollheiser

89'

Diogo Spencer← Tiago Gouveia

90+4'

Rúben Ramos Ismael

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaMoreirense

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots8

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.26

6Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots8

8On Target0

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

550Total Passes546

481Accurate Passes472

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1