Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Morecambe vs Southend — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Southend
Southend
C. Stockton 56'
T. Dieng 18'
4/6/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Morecambe41%
×Draw27%
Southend31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.33
Southend
1.12

Morecambe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 31 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.24
Southend
0.90

allows per match

Morecambe
1.34
Southend
1.42

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Southend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
69%
Morecambe or Southend
73%
Draw or Southend
59%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
19%
Southend wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
74%
Morecambe 2+ goals
38%
Morecambe 3+ goals
15%
Southend 1+ goals
67%
Southend 2+ goals
31%
Southend 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
57%
Southend (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Southend attack 0.90 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Morecambe scores more
41%
level
27%
Southend scores more
31%

Morecambe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. MellorMorecambeMorecambe · D
7.9

Match Events

18'
T. Dieng↳ E. Bwomono
56'
C. Stockton
59'
R. Holmes← A. Nathaniel-George
68'
Jason Dimitriou
74'
E. Acquah← G. Halford
75'
K. Taylor← J. Demetriou

Possession

56%Morecambe

Shots

17Morecambe

Pass accuracy

52%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambeSouthend
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots9
8Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots9
2On Target3
8Off Target2
7Blocked4
11Inside Box3
6Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
347Total Passes274
196Accurate Passes140
56%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

League Two: Morecambe 1–1 Southend

Morecambe and Southend drew 1-1 in League Two on April 6, 2021.

Goals: T. Dieng (18'), C. Stockton (56').

Morecambe controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.