Morecambe 2–0 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Macclesfield

A. Wildig 35'

T. Diagouraga 18'

2/11/2020

League Two · Round 33Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Morecambe48%

×Draw26%

Macclesfield26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.03

Morecambe

1.51

Macclesfield

1.03

Morecambe creates 47% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

1.24

creates per match

0.72

1.34

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Macclesfield

0.72

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Macclesfield

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

74%

Morecambe or Macclesfield

74%

Draw or Macclesfield

52%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

24%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

78%

Morecambe 2+ goals

44%

Morecambe 3+ goals

19%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

64%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

28%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

65%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.51

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Morecambe scores more

48%

level

26%

Macclesfield scores more

26%

Morecambe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

C. Mafoumbi

Morecambe · G

7.5

Match Events

18'

T. Diagouraga

35'

A. Wildig↳ J. O'Sullivan

46'

T. Archibald← A. Gnahoua

46'

B. Tollitt← H. Hamblin

68'

D. Wilson← S. Tracey

81'

L. Conlan← A. Wildig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeMacclesfield

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots13

3Corners11

6Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked5

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

336Total Passes384

188Accurate Passes230

56%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls8