Morecambe 2–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

Carlos Gomes 73'

S. Lavelle 56'

D. Johnson 18'

12/15/2020

League Two · Round 18Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe36%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Morecambe

1.22

Leyton Orient

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 94 away

1.24

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

63%

Morecambe or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

64%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

15%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

70%

Morecambe 2+ goals

34%

Morecambe 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

49%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Morecambe scores more

36%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Y. Songo'o

Morecambe · M

7.5

Match Events

11'

Harry Davis

18'

D. Johnson↳ H. Kyprianou

44'

Lee Angol

56'

S. Lavelle↳ H. Davis

67'

R. Sotiriou← L. Angol

67'

J. McAnuff← H. Kyprianou

68'

Craig Clay

73'

Carlos Gomes↳ A. Phillips

78'

Samuel Lavelle

78'

L. Dennis← C. Clay

80'

A. Leitch-Smith← C. Stockton

83'

86'

86'

89'

89'

A. Kenyon← J. OSullivan

90'

Ajay Leitch-Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeLeyton

Overview

42%Possession58%

22Total Shots11

5Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots11

4On Target3

6Off Target6

12Blocked2

16Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

298Total Passes429

173Accurate Passes296

58%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

League Two: Morecambe 2–1 Leyton Orient

Morecambe beat Leyton Orient 2-1 in League Two on December 15, 2020.

Goals: D. Johnson (18'), S. Lavelle (56'), Carlos Gomes (73').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 22.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.

Morecambe vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Morecambe 2–1 Leyton Orient