Morecambe 1–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

A. Phillips 46'

H. Knibbs 68'

1/25/2020

League Two · Round 29Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Morecambe33%

×Draw27%

Cambridge United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.28

Morecambe

1.15

Cambridge United

1.28

Cambridge United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.34

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

61%

Morecambe or Cambridge United

73%

Draw or Cambridge United

67%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

14%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

68%

Morecambe 2+ goals

32%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

72%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

37%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

46%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Morecambe scores more

33%

level

27%

Cambridge United scores more

39%

Cambridge United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Carlos Gomes

Morecambe · F

7.6

Match Events

25'

Paul Lewis

36'

George Maris

46'

A. Phillips↳ C. Stockton

55'

Adam Phillips

59'

Jordan Slew

68'

H. Knibbs↳ V. Adeboyejo

73'

A. Wildig← A. Kenyon

79'

T. Brewitt← A. Phillips

85'

A. Leitch-Smith← J. Slew

86'

L. Hannant← L. ONeil

87'

I. El Mizouni← J. Roles

90'

Ryan Cooney

90+1'

D. Jones← H. Dunk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeCambridge

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots15

2Corners6

16Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots15

3On Target3

6Off Target8

6Blocked4

12Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

301Total Passes476

184Accurate Passes347

61%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2