Cambridge United 2–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

J. Ironside 71' (pen)

S. Smith 42'

C. Stockton 68'

4/9/2022

League One · Round 42Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cambridge United51%

×Draw25%

Morecambe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.05

Cambridge United

1.63

Morecambe

1.05

Cambridge United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.89

1.22

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

76%

Cambridge United or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

49%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

27%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

80%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

48%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

22%

Morecambe 1+ goals

65%

Morecambe 2+ goals

28%

Morecambe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

68%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cambridge United scores more

51%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

24%

Cambridge United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

H. Knibbs

Cambridge United · M

7.9

Match Events

42'

S. Smith

51'

Fane Ousmane

65'

W. Hoolahan← J. Brophy

67'

J. Ayunga← A. Gnahoua

68'

C. Stockton

71'

J. IronsidePenalty

72'

J. Okedina← S. Sherring

82'

H. Dunk← J. Iredale

83'

S. McLoughlin← R. Bennett

83'

J. Obika← A. Wildig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeMorecambe

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots19

3Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots19

5On Target5

5Off Target7

5Blocked7

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

439Total Passes314

325Accurate Passes194

74%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1