Morecambe 2–3 Bury: Result & Stats | League Two

Morecambe

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bury

S. Old 69'

R. Bennett 65'

J. O'Shea 59', 45+4'

D. Mayor 17'

2/9/2019

League Two · Round 32Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Morecambe24%

×Draw29%

Bury47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchBury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.27

Morecambe

0.82

Bury

1.27

Bury creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

1.20

1.34

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Bury

1.20

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Bury

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Bury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

53%

Morecambe or Bury

71%

Draw or Bury

76%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

8%

Bury wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

56%

Morecambe 2+ goals

20%

Morecambe 3+ goals

5%

Bury 1+ goals

72%

Bury 2+ goals

36%

Bury 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

34%

Bury (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Bury away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Bury defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Bury attack 1.20 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morecambe scores more

24%

level

29%

Bury scores more

47%

Bury at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Mayor↳ B. Moore

43'

S. Old← S. Lavelle

45+3'

Carlos Gomes← A. Tutte

45+4'

J. O'Shea↳ N. Maynard

58'

59'

60'

65'

69'

79'

83'

E. O'Connell← D. Mayor

89'

Richard Bennett

89'

S. Dalby← L. Conlan

90+1'

D. Telford← B. Moore

Morecambe

Bury

1

Murphy

5

Thompson

19

Wharton

26

⚽2

O'Shea

7

▼

Adams

10

⚽A

▼

Mayor

4

Aimson

11

Rossiter

36

A

Maynard

15

A

▼

21

21

2

12

3

▼

Conlan

27

A

Cranston

16

▼

Lavelle

11

Ellison

6

▼

Tutte

26

Mingoia

4

Kenyon

7

⚽

Bennett

Manager: J. Bentley

43'▲S. Old←▼S. Lavelle

45+3'▲Carlos Gomes←▼A. Tutte

89'▲S. Dalby←▼L. Conlan

Morecambe substitutes

5Old19Gomes14Dalby13Szczepaniak18Oates24McKay25Hedley

Manager: R. Lowe

79'▲R. Cooney←▼N. Adams

83'▲E. O'Connell←▼D. Mayor

90+1'▲D. Telford←▼B. Moore

Bury substitutes

16Cooney6O'Connell18Telford3Stokes27Omotayo31Danns43Maloney