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Mordovia Saransk vs Zenit 2 — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
E. Yatchenko 30'
10/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mordovia Saransk40%
×Draw30%
Zenit 230%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
1.16
Zenit 2
0.97

Mordovia Saransk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.79
Zenit 2
0.68

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.26
Zenit 2
1.53

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
70%
Mordovia Saransk or Zenit 2
70%
Draw or Zenit 2
60%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
17%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
69%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
32%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
11%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
62%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
25%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
57%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.79 + Zenit 2 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Zenit 2 attack 0.68 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
40%
level
30%
Zenit 2 scores more
30%

Mordovia Saransk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
E. Yatchenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Mordovia Saransk 1–0 Zenit 2

Mordovia Saransk beat Zenit 2 1-0 in First League on October 24, 2018.

Goals: E. Yatchenko (30').

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).