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Mordovia Saransk vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tyumen
Tyumen
I. Petrov 44'
M. Votinov 57'
11/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Mordovia Saransk37%
×Draw30%
Tyumen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
1.11
Tyumen
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
Tyumen
0.78

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.25
Tyumen
1.41

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
67%
Mordovia Saransk or Tyumen
70%
Draw or Tyumen
63%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
15%
Tyumen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
67%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
30%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
10%
Tyumen 1+ goals
64%
Tyumen 2+ goals
27%
Tyumen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
53%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Tyumen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tyumen attack 0.78 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
37%
level
30%
Tyumen scores more
33%

Mordovia Saransk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
I. Petrov
57'
M. Votinov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs Tyumen

Mordovia Saransk and Tyumen drew 1-1 in First League on November 24, 2018.

Goals: I. Petrov (44'), M. Votinov (57').

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).