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Mordovia Saransk vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
M. Barsov 66' (pen)
Y. Kazaev 61'
3/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mordovia Saransk26%
×Draw27%
PFC Sochi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
0.96
PFC Sochi
1.37

PFC Sochi creates 43% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.83
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.29
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
54%
Mordovia Saransk or PFC Sochi
73%
Draw or PFC Sochi
74%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
9%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
62%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
25%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
7%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
75%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
40%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
36%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.83 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
26%
level
27%
PFC Sochi scores more
46%

PFC Sochi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
Dusan Lagator
54'
Vladislav Adaev
56'
Evgeni Yatchenko
56'
Ilya Petrov
61'
Y. Kazaev
65'
Igor Kireev
66'
M. BarsovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs PFC Sochi

PFC Sochi beat Mordovia Saransk 2-0 in First League on March 30, 2019.

Goals: Y. Kazaev (61'), M. Barsov (66' pen).

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).