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Mordovia Saransk vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
11/4/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mordovia Saransk36%
×Draw31%
FC Armavir33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
1.03
FC Armavir
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.24
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
67%
Mordovia Saransk or FC Armavir
69%
Draw or FC Armavir
64%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
14%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
64%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
28%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
9%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
62%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
25%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
53%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
36%
level
31%
FC Armavir scores more
33%

Mordovia Saransk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs FC Armavir

Mordovia Saransk beat FC Armavir 2-1 in First League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).