Mordovia Saransk 1–4 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Mordovia Saransk

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Avangard Kursk

9/19/2018

First League · Round 12Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mordovia Saransk35%

×Draw29%

Avangard Kursk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mordovia SaranskExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

Mordovia Saransk

1.09

Avangard Kursk

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

0.81

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk

0.81

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk

1.24

Avangard Kursk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw

65%

Mordovia Saransk or Avangard Kursk

71%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

65%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

14%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

66%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

30%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

10%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

66%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

30%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

50%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more

35%

level

29%

Avangard Kursk scores more

35%

Mordovia Saransk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff