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Moravac Mrštane vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
2 – 3
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
9/19/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 8SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane23%
×Draw20%
Sinđelić57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.39
Sinđelić
2.27

Sinđelić creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
43%
Moravac Mrštane or Sinđelić
80%
Draw or Sinđelić
77%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
10%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
75%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
40%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
16%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
90%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
66%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
29%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
23%
level
20%
Sinđelić scores more
57%

Sinđelić at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 2–3 Sinđelić

Sinđelić beat Moravac Mrštane 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.