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Moravac Mrštane vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
0 – 2
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 6SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane24%
×Draw21%
SFS Borac55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.39
SFS Borac
2.16

SFS Borac creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
45%
Moravac Mrštane or SFS Borac
79%
Draw or SFS Borac
76%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
10%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
75%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
40%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
16%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
88%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
63%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
31%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
24%
level
21%
SFS Borac scores more
55%

SFS Borac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moravac Mrštane vs SFS Borac

SFS Borac beat Moravac Mrštane 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.