Morava Vladičin Han vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Morava Vladičin Han43%
Sinđelić33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Morava Vladičin Han creates 16% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Morava Vladičin Han ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches
Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63
Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Morava Vladičin Han at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jagodina
Budućnost PopovacSinđelić
Toplicanin Prokuplje
SFS Borac
Vlasina
Timočanin
Radan
Moravac Mrštane
Dunav Prahovo
Car Konstantin
Dubočica
Rembas
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Trstenik PPT
Temnic 1924If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Morava Vladičin Han host Sinđelić on Saturday, 3 October 2020 at 13:00. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - East: Morava Vladičin Han 2–1 Sinđelić
Morava Vladičin Han beat Sinđelić 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 3, 2020.
The match was played at Stadion FK Morava in Vladičin Han.