Morava Vladičin Han 1–2 Pčinja Trgovište

Morava Vladičin Han

FT

1 – 2

Pčinja Trgovište

5/1/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 32Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han49%

×Draw23%

Pčinja Trgovište28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Morava Vladičin HanExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Morava Vladičin Han

1.77

Pčinja Trgovište

1.29

Morava Vladičin Han creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 63 away

1.68

creates per match

1.11

1.47

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.68

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han

1.47

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw

72%

Morava Vladičin Han or Pčinja Trgovište

77%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

51%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

26%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

83%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

53%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

26%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

72%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

37%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

63%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

49%

level

23%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

28%

Morava Vladičin Han at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff